Does Parole Work? The Empirical Evidence from England and Wales

The question “Does parole work?” can be given a number of meanings. One is whether parole—by which I mean the early release by a parole board of a prisoner on license so that a shorter period of the sentence is served in prison and a longer proportion under supervision—has a beneficial impact on the probability of recidivism: Is there, as it is sometimes put, a “parole effect”? Another question is whether parole selectors are able to identify accurately “good risk” prisoners for release while requiring those who are the “worst risks” to remain in secure conditions? A third is whether parole decisions are fair? This article will review the empirical evidence from England and Wales relating to these questions. The term parole will be used to refer to discretionary conditional release under supervision of those serving determinate sentences of imprisonment. It can therefore be contrasted with automatic conditional release under supervision, which is not parole.